Lamar Jackson Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Lamar Jackson

NFL · Player Props

Lamar Jackson

QB · Baltimore Ravens

Carries

Baltimore Ravens vs Cleveland Browns · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Lamar Jackson Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-129/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 7.5 @ +108 before it was bet down to 7.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Ravens are a 6-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
The predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens as the 2nd-most run-focused team on the slate this week with a 49.9% run rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is predicted by the predictive model to see 130.4 offensive plays called: the 2nd-most among all games this week.
The leading projections forecast Lamar Jackson to total 9.8 rush attempts in this week's contest, on average: the most out of all QBs.
Accounting for 29.8% of his offense's carries this year (100th percentile when it comes to QBs), Lamar Jackson's mobility marks him as a significant threat as a ball-carrier.

Favors Under

The Baltimore Ravens feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 3.4% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in defending against the run, Cleveland's group of DTs has been terrific this year, grading out as the 6th-best in the league.

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