Lamar Jackson Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Lamar Jackson

NFL · Player Props

Lamar Jackson

QB · Baltimore Ravens

Carries

Baltimore Ravens vs Houston Texans · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Lamar Jackson Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-122/-108).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ +104 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ -108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Ravens are a big 9.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 2nd-most run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 48.5% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Ravens to call the 7th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Lamar Jackson to garner 10.0 rush attempts in this contest, on average: the 4th-most of all quarterbacks.
Lamar Jackson isn't afraid to call his own number, accounting for 28.7% of his team's rush attempts since the start of last season, ranking in the 95th percentile among QBs.

Favors Under

The Baltimore Ravens will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.5% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).

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