Lamar Jackson Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Lamar Jackson

NFL · Player Props

Lamar Jackson

QB · Baltimore Ravens

Carries

New Orleans Saints vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 8, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Lamar Jackson Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-145/+106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -139 before it was bet up to 9.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Lamar Jackson to accrue 8.6 carries in this contest, on average: the 3rd-most of all quarterbacks.
THE BLITZ projects Lamar Jackson to be much more involved in his team's rushing attack this week (32.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (22.4% in games he has played).
The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens as the least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 41.3% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 125.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Baltimore Ravens have run the least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 55.9 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
The New Orleans Saints defensive ends grade out as the 3rd-best group of DEs in the league this year in regard to defending the run.

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