Lamar Jackson Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Lamar Jackson

NFL · Player Props

Lamar Jackson

QB · Baltimore Ravens

Carries

Baltimore Ravens vs Miami Dolphins · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 19, 2022 2:55 AM UTC

Analysis

Lamar Jackson Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 8.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Ravens are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens as the 4th-most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 48.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Baltimore Ravens have run the most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 67.8 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Lamar Jackson to total 11.0 carries in this contest, on average: the 2nd-most of all quarterbacks.
THE BLITZ projects Lamar Jackson to be much more involved in his offense's run game this week (38.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (25.2% in games he has played).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 117.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Baltimore Ravens O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in football since the start of last season in run blocking.
The Miami Dolphins defensive ends project as the 4th-best DE corps in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.
The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box against opponents on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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