Lamar Jackson Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Lamar Jackson

NFL · Player Props

Lamar Jackson

QB · Baltimore Ravens

Carries

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 1:01 AM EST

Analysis

Lamar Jackson Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-130/-102).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Ravens are a heavy 13-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 8th-most run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 46.6% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Lamar Jackson to total 10.3 carries in this week's contest, on average: the 2nd-most of all QBs.
THE BLITZ projects Lamar Jackson to be a much bigger part of his team's rushing attack this week (34.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (24.3% in games he has played).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box versus opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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