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Lamar Jackson

Lamar Jackson Carries
Player Prop Week 11

Baltimore Ravens vs Carolina Panthers

Lamar Jackson Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ +110 before it was bet up to 9.5 @ -105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Ravens are a massive 13-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 4th-most run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 51.6% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The weather report calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.

THE BLITZ projects Lamar Jackson to accrue 11.5 rush attempts this week, on average: the most of all QBs.

THE BLITZ projects Lamar Jackson to be a more important option in his team's running game this week (33.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (23.4% in games he has played).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 126.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Baltimore Ravens have run the 8th-least plays in football this year, totaling a measly 56.2 plays per game.

The Carolina Panthers linebackers grade out as the best group of LBs in football this year when it comes to run defense.

The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box vs. opponents on 26.1% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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