Kyren Williams Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Kyren Williams

NFL · Player Props

Kyren Williams

RB · Los Angeles Rams

Touchdowns

Washington Commanders vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 9, 2026

Updated Nov 8, 2026 4:27 PM EST

Analysis

Kyren Williams Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-135/+130).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Los Angeles Rams as the 7th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 59.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The Rams have been the 10th-most pass-heavy team in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) this year with a 58.1% red zone pass rate.
The Rams have called the 8th-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 60.2 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.3 pass attempts per game against the Washington Commanders defense this year: 4th-most in the league.
Kyren Williams has notched a massive 13.0 air yards per game this year: 99th percentile among RBs. (This may not sound like a lot, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage).

Favors Under

The Rams are a 4-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a running game script.
The predictive model expects the Rams to run the 10th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.4 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
Kyren Williams has received 58.3% of his offense's red zone rush attempts this year, putting him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to RBs.
Kyren Williams has rushed for 0.75 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest marks in the league among running backs (93rd percentile).
The Washington Commanders pass defense has allowed the 4th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (75.2%) vs. RBs this year (75.2%).

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