Kyren Williams Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Kyren Williams

RB · Los Angeles Rams

Touchdowns

Philadelphia Eagles vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 1, 2026 9:02 PM EST

Analysis

Kyren Williams Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-112/-108).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Los Angeles Rams to be the 9th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 59.5% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The model projects Kyren Williams to be a less important option in his offense's rushing attack near the end zone in this contest (60.8% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (80.0% in games he has played).
When talking about air yards, Kyren Williams grades out in the lofty 99th percentile among running backs since the start of last season, totaling a striking 10.0 per game. (because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more notable than it sounds since most RBs have negative air yards).
Kyren Williams's 21.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially higher this year than it was last year at 13.6.
Kyren Williams's 92.8% Adjusted Catch% this season reflects a meaningful growth in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 81.8% mark.

Favors Under

The Rams are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
The projections expect the Rams to call the 9th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.6 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
Kyren Williams has run for 0.48 TDs per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the largest marks in football when it comes to running backs (91st percentile).
Since the start of last season, the imposing Philadelphia Eagles defense has given up a measly 65.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 2nd-best rate in the league.
Opposing offenses have run for the 4th-most TDs in football (1.20 per game) against the Eagles defense since the start of last season.