Kyren Williams Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Kyren Williams

RB · Los Angeles Rams

Touchdowns

Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 8:22 PM EST

Analysis

Kyren Williams Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+106/-108).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Los Angeles Rams to pass on 59.6% of their plays: the 8th-highest rate on the slate this week.
The projections expect this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 130.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Broncos defense has been a notorious pass funnel since the start of last season, inducing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 7th-most passes in the league (33.9 per game) since the start of last season.
Kyren Williams has been a key part of his team's pass game near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 9.6% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 80th percentile among RBs.
When talking about air yards, Kyren Williams ranks in the lofty 98th percentile among running backs since the start of last season, totaling a striking 8.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more impressive than it appears since most RBs average negative air yards).

Favors Under

The Los Angeles Rams rank as the 4th-most run-centric offense in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) this year with a 60.0% red zone run rate.
Los Angeles's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially too high (and rushing stats decreased) on account of playing the 10th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL. We figure to be able to count on some regression with windier weather in this game.
Kyren Williams has garnered 64.4% of his team's red zone carries since the start of last season, placing him in the 96th percentile when it comes to running backs.
Kyren Williams has rushed for 0.50 TDs per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the largest figures in the league among running backs (91st percentile).
Since the start of last season, the strong Denver Broncos defense has given up a paltry 73.1% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing running backs: the smallest rate in the NFL.