Kyren Williams Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

Kyren Williams

RB · Los Angeles Rams

Touchdowns

Los Angeles Rams vs New York Giants · Week 2, 2026

Updated Sep 21, 2026 8:02 PM EST

Analysis

Kyren Williams Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-144/+141).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced rush volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
While Kyren Williams has received 63.6% of his offense's red zone carries in games he has played since the start of last season, the model projects him to be a much smaller piece of Los Angeles's run game near the end zone in this week's contest at 51.4%.
With an exceptional 9.0% Red Zone Target Rate (79th percentile) since the start of last season, Kyren Williams stands among the pass-game running backs with the biggest workloads near the end zone in the league.
When it comes to air yards, Kyren Williams grades out in the lofty 98th percentile among running backs since the start of last season, totaling a striking 8.0 per game. (considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more notable than it sounds since most RBs average negative air yards).
Kyren Williams grades out in the 88th percentile among running backs when it comes to catching TDs since the start of last season, averaging a remarkable 0.14 per game.

Favors Under

With a 7-point advantage, the Rams are heavily favored in this week's game, indicating much more of a focus on running than their usual game plan.
Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Rams to pass on 57.0% of their chances: the lowest rate among all teams this week.
The Los Angeles Rams have been the most run-focused team in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) this year with a 77.8% red zone run rate.
The projections expect this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 125.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
In regards to protecting the passer (and the importance it has on all pass game metrics), the offensive line of the Rams profiles as the worst in the league since the start of last season.