Kyren Williams Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Kyren Williams

RB · Los Angeles Rams

Touchdowns

Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 10, 2026 8:42 PM EST

Analysis

Kyren Williams Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+108/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +135 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Rams as the 5th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 60.1% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The 49ers defense has been a well-known pass funnel last year, compelling opposing offenses to attempt the 8th-most passes in football (34.1 per game) last year.
Kyren Williams has been an integral part of his team's pass game near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 9.2% last year, which puts him in the 77th percentile when it comes to RBs.
In regards to air yards, Kyren Williams grades out in the towering 98th percentile among RBs last year, accruing a colossal 8.0 per game. (considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage, that is much more notable than it appears since most RBs wind up with negative air yards).
With a terrific rate of 0.15 per game through the air (88th percentile), Kyren Williams places among the leading receiving touchdown-scorers in the NFL when it comes to RBs last year.

Favors Under

The Rams are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
The model projects the Rams to call the 9th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
Los Angeles's passing stats last year may be artificially too high (and running stats decreased) in light of playing the 10th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football. We should be able to count on some correction with windier weather in this week's contest.
Kyren Williams has received 62.7% of his offense's red zone carries last year, ranking him in the 96th percentile when it comes to RBs.
With a terrific rate of 0.50 rushing TDs per game (94th percentile), Kyren Williams ranks as one of the leading rushing TD-scorers in the NFL last year.