Kyren Williams Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

reorder

We’re hiring: Junior AI Product & Automation Engineer — Freelance → Learn More

NFL · Player Props

Kyren Williams

RB · Los Angeles Rams

Receptions

Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 7:57 PM EST

Analysis

Kyren Williams Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-210/+155).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -190 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -210.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Los Angeles Rams to pass on 59.6% of their plays: the 8th-highest rate on the slate this week.
The projections expect this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 130.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Broncos defense has been a notorious pass funnel since the start of last season, inducing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 7th-most passes in the league (33.9 per game) since the start of last season.
Kyren Williams has run a route on 55.1% of his team's passing plays since the start of last season, ranking him in the 91st percentile among RBs.
In this week's contest, Kyren Williams is projected by our trusted projection set to secure a spot in the 81st percentile when it comes to RBs with 3.1 targets.

Favors Under

Los Angeles's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially too high (and rushing stats decreased) on account of playing the 10th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL. We figure to be able to count on some regression with windier weather in this game.
Since the start of last season, the strong Denver Broncos defense has given up a paltry 73.1% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing running backs: the smallest rate in the NFL.