Kyren Williams Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Kyren Williams

NFL · Player Props

Kyren Williams

RB · Los Angeles Rams

Receptions

Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 17, 2023 11:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Kyren Williams Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +145 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Rams are a massive 7.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams to be the most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 66.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 36.4 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Kyren Williams to notch 3.5 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 87th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Rams to run the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 58.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Rams have run the 9th-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging just 55.6 plays per game.
Kyren Williams has been among the most hard-handed receivers in the league among RBs, hauling in just 67.6% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 14th percentile.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has surrendered the 2nd-lowest Completion% in football (74.1%) to running backs since the start of last season (74.1%).
The San Francisco 49ers safeties profile as the 2nd-best collection of safeties in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

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