Kyren Williams Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Kyren Williams

RB · Los Angeles Rams

Carries

Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 8:32 PM EST

Analysis

Kyren Williams Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-191/+129).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -103 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ +129.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 130.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Los Angeles's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially too high (and rushing stats decreased) on account of playing the 10th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL. We figure to be able to count on some regression with windier weather in this game.
In this week's game, Kyren Williams is projected by our trusted projection set to position himself in the 75th percentile among running backs with 12.2 carries.
The Denver defensive tackles project as the 2nd-worst group of DTs in football since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Rams to be the 8th-least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 40.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast Kyren Williams to be a less important option in his offense's rushing attack this week (47.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (59.6% in games he has played).