Kyler Murray Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Kyler Murray

QB · Minnesota Vikings

Touchdowns

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 4:27 PM EST

Analysis

Kyler Murray Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+424/-525).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ 0 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -525.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Vikings to be the 2nd-most pass-focused offense in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 62.0% red zone pass rate.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has conceded the 8th-most passing touchdowns in the NFL: 1.74 per game since the start of last season.
When it comes to the defensive ends' role in run defense, Tampa Bay's group of DEs has been terrific since the start of last season, profiling as the 2nd-best in the league.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings as the 10th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 54.6% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Vikings are forecasted by our trusted projection set to call only 60.3 total plays in this contest: the lowest number among all teams this week.
The lowest number of plays in football have been called by the Minnesota Vikings since the start of last season (just 51.6 per game on average).
The Vikings have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to mean reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing offense results when facing windier conditions this week.
This week, Kyler Murray is forecasted by the predictive model to total the 5th-fewest pass attempts among all QBs with 30.8.