Kyler Murray TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Kyler Murray

QB · Minnesota Vikings

TD Passes

Minnesota Vikings vs Miami Dolphins · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 4:07 PM EST

Analysis

Kyler Murray TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+106/-122).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -138 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -122.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the present time, the 5th-most pass-oriented team in football near the end zone (61.6% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Minnesota Vikings.
The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop.
Since the start of last season, the poor Dolphins defense has been torched for a colossal 75.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 2nd-largest rate in football.
The Dolphins defense has yielded the 6th-most touchdowns through the air in football: 1.80 per game since the start of last season.
The Dolphins safeties rank as the 4th-worst safety corps in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

With a 10-point advantage, the Vikings are a huge favorite in this week's game, indicating much more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.
Our trusted projections expect the Minnesota Vikings as the 5th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 54.2% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect this game to have the smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 121.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The lowest number of plays in the league have been run by the Vikings since the start of last season (a measly 51.7 per game on average).
The predictive model expects Kyler Murray to throw 31.4 passes in this week's contest, on balance: the 4th-fewest among all QBs.