Kyler Murray TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Kyler Murray

NFL · Player Props

Kyler Murray

QB · Arizona Cardinals

TD Passes

Minnesota Vikings vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 7:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Kyler Murray TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+117/-152).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -148 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -152.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cardinals are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 134.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Arizona Cardinals have run the most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 66.4 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Kyler Murray to attempt 39.2 passes in this game, on average: the 5th-most of all QBs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals as the 10th-least pass-centric team in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 55.1% red zone pass rate.
Kyler Murray's passing accuracy has worsened this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 68.0% to 63.8%.
The Minnesota Vikings defense has allowed the 8th-least touchdowns through the air in the league: 1.00 per game this year.
The Arizona Cardinals O-line has afforded their quarterback a measly 2.34 seconds before getting pressured (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all pass game stats across the board.
The Arizona Cardinals have been faced with a stacked the box on just 9.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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