Kyler Murray TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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NFL · Player Props

Kyler Murray

QB · Arizona Cardinals

TD Passes

Arizona Cardinals vs New Orleans Saints · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 20, 2022 11:16 PM EST

Analysis

Kyler Murray TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+108/-138).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +118 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 130.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Arizona Cardinals have called the most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 68.7 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Kyler Murray has attempted 44.7 passes per game this year, checking in at the 97th percentile among QBs.
The New Orleans Saints cornerbacks project as the 2nd-worst collection of CBs in the league this year in pass coverage.

Favors Under

Kyler Murray's passing precision has worsened this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 68.0% to 63.2%.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest level in the league against the New Orleans Saints defense this year (64.8%).
The Arizona Cardinals offensive line has afforded their QB just 2.34 seconds before getting pressured (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
The Arizona Cardinals have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 9.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.