Kyler Murray TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Kyler Murray

NFL · Player Props

Kyler Murray

QB · Arizona Cardinals

TD Passes

Arizona Cardinals vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Kyler Murray TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+110/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cardinals are a 5.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals to be the 3rd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 64.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Arizona Cardinals have called the 4th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 70.2 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Favors Under

Kyler Murray's passing precision has tailed off this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 68.0% to 63.9%.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the lowest rate in the league versus the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year (60.9%).
The Philadelphia Eagles cornerbacks project as the 2nd-best group of CBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Arizona Cardinals O-line has afforded their QB a measly 2.34 seconds before getting pressured (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all air attack stats across the board.
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.40 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 7th-fastest in the NFL since the start of last season.

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