Kyler Murray Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Kyler Murray

QB · Minnesota Vikings

Rushing Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 4:07 PM EST

Analysis

Kyler Murray Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-113/-113).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 21.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 20.5 @ -113.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Vikings as the 10th-most run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 45.4% run rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The Vikings have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to mean reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing offense results when facing windier conditions this week.
The predictive model expects Kyler Murray to accrue 6.5 carries in this contest, on balance: the 4th-most out of all quarterbacks.
With an exceptional rate of 20.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (82nd percentile), Kyler Murray places as one of the best running quarterbacks in football since the start of last season.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Vikings are forecasted by our trusted projection set to call only 60.3 total plays in this contest: the lowest number among all teams this week.
The lowest number of plays in football have been called by the Minnesota Vikings since the start of last season (just 51.6 per game on average).
Kyler Murray has been a much smaller piece of his team's ground game this season (6.7% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (23.0%).
The opposing side have rushed for the 5th-fewest adjusted yards in the NFL (just 96.0 per game) against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense since the start of last season.
When it comes to the defensive ends' role in run defense, Tampa Bay's group of DEs has been terrific since the start of last season, profiling as the 2nd-best in the league.