Kyler Murray Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Kyler Murray

QB · Minnesota Vikings

Rushing Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 13, 2026 8:27 PM EST

Analysis

Kyler Murray Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-107/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 21.5 @ -129 before it was bet up to 23.5 @ -107.

Key Factors

Favors Over

In this week's game, Kyler Murray is expected by the projection model to accrue the 6th-most carries out of all quarterbacks with 6.1.
Kyler Murray isn't afraid to call his own number, comprising 23.0% of his team's carries last year, placing him in the 98th percentile among QBs.
Kyler Murray has generated 23.0 adjusted rushing yards per game last year, one of the highest figures in the NFL among QBs (88th percentile).

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Vikings to run on 39.8% of their downs: the 6th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the projection model to see only 124.5 total plays run: the 4th-lowest number out of all the games this week.
The Minnesota Vikings have run the fewest plays in football last year, totaling a measly 51.6 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.