Kyler Murray Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Kyler Murray

NFL · Player Props

Kyler Murray

QB · Arizona Cardinals

Rushing TD

Arizona Cardinals vs New Orleans Saints · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 20, 2022 11:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Kyler Murray Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+201/-309).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +293 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +201.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 130.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Arizona Cardinals have called the most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 68.7 plays per game.
Kyler Murray isn't afraid to run the ball near the end zone, accounting for 17.8% of his [OFFENSE_TEAMS]'s red zone carries this year (81st percentile among quarterbacks).
The Arizona Cardinals have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 9.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The New Orleans Saints linebackers profile as the 6th-best LB corps in football this year when it comes to run defense.
The Arizona Cardinals have incorporated some form of misdirection on a lowly 34.3% of their plays since the start of last season (least in football), which likely makes the offense more predictable and less effective.

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