Kyler Murray Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Kyler Murray

QB · Arizona Cardinals

Rushing TD

Carolina Panthers vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Kyler Murray Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+255/-427).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +307 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +255.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals offense to be the 6th-quickest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 26.50 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Kyler Murray to be a more integral piece of his team's run game near the end zone this week (18.7% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played).
Kyler Murray has run for 0.17 touchdowns per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the highest figures in the NFL among quarterbacks (79th percentile).
The Carolina Panthers defensive ends grade out as the 4th-worst unit in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.
The Arizona Cardinals have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 9.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Cardinals rank as the 10th-least run-heavy team in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) this year with a 29.4% red zone run rate.
The Arizona Cardinals O-line profiles as the 5th-worst in the league since the start of last season in run blocking.
The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box against opponents on 26.1% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Arizona Cardinals have used some form of misdirection on a mere 34.3% of their plays since the start of last season (least in the NFL), which likely makes the offense more predictable and less effective.