Kyler Murray Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Kyler Murray

NFL · Player Props

Kyler Murray

QB · Arizona Cardinals

Rushing TD

Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 27, 2022 9:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Kyler Murray Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+274/-464).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -456 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -464.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals as the 10th-most run-heavy team in the NFL near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 44.7% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Arizona Cardinals have run the most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 64.1 plays per game.
Kyler Murray isn't afraid to take off running near the goal line, accounting for 21.1% of his [OFFENSE_TEAMS]'s red zone carries this year (89th percentile among quarterbacks).
Opposing teams have run for the 9th-most touchdowns in football (1.10 per game) vs. the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year.

Favors Under

The Arizona Cardinals offensive line profiles as the 3rd-worst in football this year at run-game blocking.
The Arizona Cardinals have used some form of misdirection on a lowly 34.3% of their play-calls since the start of last season (least in football), which likely makes the offense more predictable and less effective.

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