Kyler Murray Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Kyler Murray

QB · Minnesota Vikings

Completions

Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 13, 2026 8:27 PM EST

Analysis

Kyler Murray Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-109/+108).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 21.5 @ +112 before it was bet down to 21.5 @ +108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Vikings as the 6th-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 60.2% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
The predictive model expects Kyler Murray to throw 36.2 passes in this game, on average: the 5th-most among all quarterbacks.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game versus the Green Bay Packers defense last year: 10th-most in the NFL.
Last year, the deficient Green Bay Packers defense has conceded a staggering 72.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 10th-highest rate in football.

Favors Under

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the projection model to see only 124.5 total plays run: the 4th-lowest number out of all the games this week.
The Minnesota Vikings have run the fewest plays in football last year, totaling a measly 51.6 plays per game.