Kyler Murray Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Kyler Murray

QB · Arizona Cardinals

Completions

Carolina Panthers vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Kyler Murray Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-102/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 23.5 @ +106 before it was bet up to 23.5 @ -102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals offense to be the 6th-quickest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 26.50 seconds per snap.
Kyler Murray has attempted 36.6 passes per game since the start of last season, grading out in the 82nd percentile among QBs.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 10th-highest clip in the league against the Carolina Panthers defense since the start of last season (71.1%).
The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box against opponents on 26.1% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Arizona Cardinals have incorporated play action on 30.6% of their passing plays since the start of last season (6th-most in football), causing the defense to bite on the run and resulting in much higher passing production.

Favors Under

The Arizona Cardinals have played in the 6th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which should result in reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced offense results when facing windier conditions in this week's game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game versus the Carolina Panthers defense since the start of last season: 3rd-least in the league.
Kyler Murray's passing accuracy has diminished this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 68.0% to 62.4%.
The Carolina Panthers defensive tackles profile as the 7th-best collection of DTs in the league since the start of last season in regard to pass rush.
The Arizona Cardinals O-line has allowed their quarterback a measly 2.34 seconds before getting pressured (2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing offense stats across the board.