Kylen Granson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Kylen Granson

TE · Indianapolis Colts

Receptions

Indianapolis Colts vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 2, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Kylen Granson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+125/-155).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -145 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -155.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Colts to run the 2nd-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 67.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Colts have called the 5th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 60.9 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The model projects Kylen Granson to accumulate 4.3 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 75th percentile among tight ends.
Kylen Granson's 26.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit higher this season than it was last season at 19.4.

Favors Under

The Colts boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Shane Steichen, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 1.6% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The predictive model expects the Colts as the 11th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 56.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
Kylen Granson's possession skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 77.7% to 65.4%.
The Rams pass defense has conceded the 8th-lowest Completion% in the league (69.3%) to tight ends since the start of last season (69.3%).