Kylen Granson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Kylen Granson

NFL · Player Props

Kylen Granson

TE · Indianapolis Colts

Receptions

Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Kylen Granson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+145/-190).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +165 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Colts are a 4.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 128.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Kylen Granson to be much more involved in his offense's passing offense this week (9.5% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (4.1% in games he has played).
The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has given up the 6th-highest Completion% in the NFL (75.6%) vs. tight ends since the start of last season (75.6%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 9th-least pass-centric offense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 59.8% pass rate.
The weather report calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Kylen Granson has been among the bottom pass-catching tight ends since the start of last season, averaging just 1.3 receptions per game while ranking in the 17th percentile among TEs.
Kylen Granson's possession skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 74.2% to 60.4%.
The Kansas City Chiefs defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the best in the league since the start of last season.

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