Kylen Granson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Kylen Granson

NFL · Player Props

Kylen Granson

TE · Indianapolis Colts

Receiving Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 2, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Kylen Granson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 20.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 19.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Colts to run the 2nd-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 67.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Colts have called the 5th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 60.9 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The model projects Kylen Granson to accumulate 4.3 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 75th percentile among tight ends.
Kylen Granson grades out in the 79th percentile when it comes to TEs this year with a remarkable 10.4% of his offense's air yards accumulated.

Favors Under

The Colts boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Shane Steichen, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 1.6% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The predictive model expects the Colts as the 11th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 56.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
Kylen Granson's possession skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 77.7% to 65.4%.
Kylen Granson's pass-catching efficiency has worsened this year, notching just 5.08 yards-per-target vs a 7.28 mark last year.

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