Kylen Granson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Kylen Granson

TE · Indianapolis Colts

Receiving Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 7:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Kylen Granson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing QBs have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game versus the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the NFL.
Kylen Granson has been a much bigger part of his offense's pass game this year (9.3% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (3.1%).
The Indianapolis Colts offensive line has allowed their QB 2.63 seconds before the pass (9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
The Tennessee Titans defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.55 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-slowest in football since the start of last season.
The Indianapolis Colts have incorporated play action on 33.6% of their passing plays since the start of last season (5th-most in the NFL), causing the defense to bite on the run and resulting in much higher passing production.

Favors Under

The Colts are a 4-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 10th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 56.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Colts to call the 3rd-least total plays on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Kylen Granson has been among the weakest TEs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 12.0 yards per game while checking in at the 23rd percentile among tight ends.