Kylen Granson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

Kylen Granson

TE · Indianapolis Colts

Receiving Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 4:55 PM EST

Analysis

Kylen Granson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-108/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 18.5 @ -111 before it was bet down to 18.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Colts to call the 6th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 65.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Kylen Granson to earn 4.1 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 76th percentile among tight ends.
THE BLITZ projects Kylen Granson to be a much bigger part of his team's passing offense this week (12.3% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (4.0% in games he has played).
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has shown poor efficiency versus TEs since the start of last season, surrendering 8.04 yards-per-target to the position: the 10th-most in the NFL.
The Jacksonville Jaguars safeties profile as the 9th-worst safety corps in football since the start of last season with their pass rush.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 8th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 55.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts have played in the 9th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should result in lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing offense performance when facing windier conditions in this week's contest.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 5th-least in the league.
Kylen Granson has been among the bottom pass-catching tight ends since the start of last season, averaging just 13.0 yards per game while ranking in the 20th percentile among TEs.
Kylen Granson's receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 74.2% to 47.2%.