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Kyle Pitts

Kyle Pitts Receptions
Player Prop Week 7

Atlanta Falcons vs Seattle Seahawks

Kyle Pitts Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -102 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -114.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Falcons to pass on 60.9% of their chances: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week.

The model projects this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 135.1 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.

The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer.

The predictive model expects Kyle Pitts to accrue 5.5 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 89th percentile among tight ends.

This year, the poor Seahawks pass defense has given up a massive 84.7% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the 5th-highest rate in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A rushing game script is suggested by the Falcons being a 3-point favorite in this game.

Kyle Pitts's 32.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit worse this year than it was last year at 44.8.

The Atlanta Falcons offensive line grades out as the 7th-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.

With a subpar 62.6% Adjusted Completion Rate (13th percentile) this year, Kyle Pitts has been among the least sure-handed receivers in the NFL when it comes to tight ends.

The Seahawks safeties rank as the 8th-best unit in the NFL this year in defending receivers.

More Kyle Pitts Player Props

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