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Kyle Pitts

Kyle Pitts Receptions
Player Prop Week 6

Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons

Kyle Pitts Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+142/-188).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -168 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +142.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 3rd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 132.4 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.

The leading projections forecast Kyle Pitts to accrue 5.0 targets in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 85th percentile when it comes to TEs.

Kyle Pitts's ball-catching skills have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate falling off from 60.1% to 55.1%.

When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Carolina's safety corps has been atrocious this year, grading out as the 6th-worst in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Falcons are favored in this week's game, suggesting more of a focus on running than their typical game plan.

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Carolina Panthers, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 30.4 per game) this year.

Kyle Pitts's 30.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 44.8.

When it comes to pass protection (and the impact it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Atlanta Falcons profiles as the 9th-worst in the league this year.

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