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Kyle Pitts

Kyle Pitts Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints

Kyle Pitts Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+135/-165).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -145 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -165.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Atlanta Falcons offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.23 seconds per play.

The passing games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer.

In this week's contest, Kyle Pitts is forecasted by our trusted projection set to place in the 93rd percentile when it comes to tight ends with 5.7 targets.

Kyle Pitts's 43.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive usage) ranks him among the best in football: 95th percentile for TEs.

When it comes to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all pass attack statistics), the offensive line of the Atlanta Falcons ranks as the 9th-best in the league since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 4-point advantage, the Falcons are favored in this game, implying more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Falcons to pass on 55.7% of their opportunities: the 10th-lowest clip on the slate this week.

Since the start of last season, the tough Saints defense has given up a measly 71.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing tight ends: the 9th-lowest rate in the NFL.

As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, New Orleans's unit has been tremendous since the start of last season, grading out as the 6th-best in the league.

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