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Kyle Pitts

Kyle Pitts Receptions
Player Prop Week 3

Atlanta Falcons vs Kansas City Chiefs

Kyle Pitts Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-108/-121).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -107 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -108.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A passing game script is implied by the Falcons being a -3-point underdog in this week's contest.

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Atlanta Falcons to pass on 60.6% of their downs: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is predicted by the projections to have 131.9 offensive plays run: the 3rd-most out of all the games this week.

The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop-off.

The model projects Kyle Pitts to notch 6.5 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 94th percentile when it comes to tight ends.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Opposing teams teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the Kansas City Chiefs, averaging the 7th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 31.6 per game) since the start of last season.

With a feeble 61.4% Adjusted Catch% (4th percentile) since the start of last season, Kyle Pitts places as one of the most hard-handed receivers in the league among TEs.

When it comes to defensive tackles getting after the quarterback, Kansas City's collection of DTs has been exceptional since the start of last season, projecting as the 3rd-best in the league.

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