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Kyle Pitts Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-120/-110).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -120.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Falcons are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of a focus on passing than their standard approach.Our trusted projections expect this game to have the largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 137.2 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Eagles defense last year: most in the league.The model projects Kyle Pitts to total 7.3 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 96th percentile when it comes to tight ends.Kyle Pitts's 44.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the league: 94th percentile for tight ends.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Atlanta Falcons have played in the 6th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to mean lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing attack performance when facing windier weather in this game.Kyle Pitts grades out as one of the most unreliable receivers in the league among TEs, catching a mere 61.4% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, grading out in the 4th percentile.
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