Kyle Pitts Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Kyle Pitts

NFL · Player Props

Kyle Pitts

TE · Atlanta Falcons

Receptions

Tennessee Titans vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 4:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Kyle Pitts Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+108/-138).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -140 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -138.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Atlanta Falcons have called the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a staggering 62.0 plays per game.
In this week's game, Kyle Pitts is anticipated by the projections to position himself in the 87th percentile among TEs with 5.5 targets.
Kyle Pitts ranks as one of the best tight ends in the pass game this year, averaging an exceptional 3.4 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 79th percentile.
Kyle Pitts's possession skills have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate jumping from 49.3% to 58.7%.
The Tennessee Titans pass defense has given up the 9th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (78.6%) versus tight ends this year (78.6%).

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Atlanta Falcons as the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 50.7% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Atlanta Falcons are predicted by our trusted projection set to run only 61.5 offensive plays in this game: the 5th-fewest among all teams this week.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point regression in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive volume) from last year to this one, Kyle Pitts has been used much less in his offense's passing attack.

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