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Kyle Pitts

Kyle Pitts Receptions
Player Prop Week 7

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons

Kyle Pitts Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+136/-174).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +134 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +136.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A throwing game script is indicated by the Falcons being a -3-point underdog in this week's contest.

The projections expect the Atlanta Falcons to be the 10th-fastest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 27.70 seconds per snap.

The Buccaneers defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, leading opposing teams to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the NFL (40.6 per game) this year.

The model projects Kyle Pitts to accrue 5.8 targets in this week's contest, on balance, ranking him in the 89th percentile among TEs.

Kyle Pitts rates as one of the top pass-catching TEs this year, averaging a terrific 3.6 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 87th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Falcons as the 6th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 54.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

With a RATE1-RATE2 point decrease in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive usage) from last season to this one, Kyle Pitts has been relied on much less in his team's pass game.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has allowed the 3rd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (62.7%) versus TEs this year (62.7%).

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