Kyle Pitts Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Kyle Pitts

NFL · Player Props

Kyle Pitts

TE · Atlanta Falcons

Receptions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 5:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Kyle Pitts Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+145/-192).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -101 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -192.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Falcons are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
The predictive model expects the Falcons to run the 9th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.7 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the NFL.
The predictive model expects Kyle Pitts to earn 6.1 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among TEs.
Kyle Pitts has been a key part of his team's offense, earning a Target Share of 24.3% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 99th percentile among TEs.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Atlanta Falcons to be the 5th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 52.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Falcons have called the 5th-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling just 55.8 plays per game.
The Jaguars pass defense has yielded the 3rd-lowest Completion% in football (55.4%) vs. tight ends this year (55.4%).

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