Kyle Pitts Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Kyle Pitts

NFL · Player Props

Kyle Pitts

TE · Atlanta Falcons

Receptions

Detroit Lions vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 8:01 PM EST

Analysis

Kyle Pitts Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+139/-194).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -151 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -194.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Falcons are a 3-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season: 5th-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Kyle Pitts to accrue 5.8 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 92nd percentile among tight ends.
The Atlanta Falcons offensive line profiles as the 6th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all pass game statistics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 3rd-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 52.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons offense as the 10th-most sluggish paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 28.50 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Kyle Pitts to be a much smaller part of his offense's pass game this week (19.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (24.3% in games he has played).

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