Kyle Pitts Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Kyle Pitts

NFL · Player Props

Kyle Pitts

TE · Atlanta Falcons

Receptions

Atlanta Falcons vs Green Bay Packers · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 17, 2023 5:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Kyle Pitts Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+114/-146).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -148 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -146.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Kyle Pitts to accumulate 6.2 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 95th percentile among tight ends.
Kyle Pitts has been a big part of his team's passing attack, earning a Target Share of 25.7% since the start of last season, which places him in the 99th percentile among tight ends.
The Atlanta Falcons offensive line profiles as the 5th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive effect on all passing game stats across the board.
The Green Bay Packers pass defense has yielded the 10th-highest Completion% in football (74.6%) to tight ends since the start of last season (74.6%).

Favors Under

The Falcons are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 3rd-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 53.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 125.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the 5th-least plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a mere 54.4 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 28.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Green Bay Packers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-least in football.

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