Kyle Pitts Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Kyle Pitts

NFL · Player Props

Kyle Pitts

TE · Atlanta Falcons

Receptions

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 27, 2023 3:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Kyle Pitts Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +105 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is anticipated by the projection model to have 137.0 total plays called: the highest number out of all the games this week.
The Falcons have run the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a massive 61.9 plays per game.
The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.
The leading projections forecast Kyle Pitts to total 6.1 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 90th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
Kyle Pitts checks in as one of the top pass-catching TEs this year, averaging an excellent 3.4 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 75th percentile.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Falcons to pass on 55.1% of their chances: the 11th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point drop-off in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive usage) from last season to this one, Kyle Pitts has been utilized much less in his team's passing attack.
This year, the stout Saints defense has given up a mere 67.9% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing TEs: the 7th-lowest rate in football.
The Saints defensive tackles grade out as the 7th-best unit in the NFL this year in regard to rushing the passer.

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