Kyle Pitts Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Kyle Pitts

NFL · Player Props

Kyle Pitts

TE · Atlanta Falcons

Receptions

Arizona Cardinals vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 13, 2023 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Kyle Pitts Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+114/-146).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +124 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Atlanta Falcons to call the 4th-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The 6th-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Falcons this year (a colossal 62.0 per game on average).
The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline.
In this contest, Kyle Pitts is forecasted by the predictive model to slot into the 89th percentile among TEs with 5.8 targets.
As it relates to pocket protection (and the strong impact it has on all passing offense metrics), the offensive line of the Falcons grades out as the 10th-best in the NFL this year.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Falcons as the 3rd-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 53.9% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 33.6 pass attempts per game versus the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 7th-fewest in the NFL.
Kyle Pitts's 43.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit worse this season than it was last season at 63.1.
This year, the daunting Arizona Cardinals defense has given up a meager 68.1% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing TEs: the 7th-smallest rate in football.

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