Kyle Pitts Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Kyle Pitts

NFL · Player Props

Kyle Pitts

TE · Atlanta Falcons

Receptions

Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 8:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Kyle Pitts Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+136/-185).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -170 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -185.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Carolina Panthers defense this year: 8th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Kyle Pitts to accumulate 6.3 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 93rd percentile among tight ends.
Kyle Pitts's 58.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this year than it was last year at 49.9.
The Carolina Panthers pass defense has yielded the 2nd-highest Completion% in football (83.9%) to tight ends this year (83.9%).

Favors Under

The Falcons are a 4.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 48.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 123.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the 2nd-least plays in football this year, totaling just 52.3 plays per game.
Kyle Pitts's play as a receiver has tailed off this season, averaging just 2.7 yards per game vs 3.9 last season.

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