Kyle Pitts Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Kyle Pitts

NFL · Player Props

Kyle Pitts

TE · Atlanta Falcons

Receptions

Seattle Seahawks vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:45 PM EST

Analysis

Kyle Pitts Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-106/-129).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -163 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game against the Seattle Seahawks defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Kyle Pitts to accrue 6.1 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 92nd percentile among tight ends.
Kyle Pitts's 49.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in football: 96th percentile for TEs.
Kyle Pitts has been among the best pass-catching tight ends since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 3.7 receptions per game while checking in at the 88th percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 4th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 53.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-least plays run on the slate this week at 118.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the 2nd-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 59.0 plays per game.
The Atlanta Falcons O-line profiles as the 3rd-worst in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
Kyle Pitts's receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 62.0% to 37.5%.

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