Kyle Pitts Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Kyle Pitts

NFL · Player Props

Kyle Pitts

TE · Atlanta Falcons

Receptions

Los Angeles Rams vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 11:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Kyle Pitts Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+130/-170).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +150 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Falcons are a huge 10.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 37.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Rams defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Kyle Pitts to accumulate 8.0 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 99th percentile among TEs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 7th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 58.7% pass rate.
The Atlanta Falcons have called the 2nd-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a measly 59.2 plays per game.
The Atlanta Falcons offensive line profiles as the 4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
Kyle Pitts's sure-handedness have tailed off this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 62.0% to 24.4%.
The Atlanta Falcons offensive line has given their quarterback just 2.41 seconds before getting pressured (8th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.

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