Kyle Pitts Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Kyle Pitts

NFL · Player Props

Kyle Pitts

TE · Atlanta Falcons

Receptions

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

Kyle Pitts Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+114/-146).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -146.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Falcons are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Kyle Pitts to accrue 8.0 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 99th percentile among TEs.
Kyle Pitts's 49.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in football: 97th percentile for tight ends.
Kyle Pitts has been among the best pass-game TEs since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 3.9 receptions per game while checking in at the 87th percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 6th-least pass-oriented team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 59.2% pass rate.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the 2nd-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 58.5 plays per game.
The Atlanta Falcons offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
Kyle Pitts has been among the most hard-handed receivers in the league among TEs, completing just 62.1% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 11th percentile.
The New Orleans Saints pass defense has surrendered the 3rd-lowest Completion% in football (64%) to tight ends since the start of last season (64.0%).

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