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Kyle Pitts

Kyle Pitts Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 5

Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Kyle Pitts Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 31.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 29.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Falcons are projected by the projection model to run 64.2 offensive plays in this game: the 7th-most on the slate this week.

The pass games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.2 pass attempts per game versus the Buccaneers defense this year: 5th-most in the NFL.

The predictive model expects Kyle Pitts to earn 4.7 targets in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 85th percentile among TEs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This week's spread suggests a running game script for the Falcons, who are favored by 3 points.

The Atlanta Falcons have run the 3rd-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging just 50.2 plays per game.

After averaging 62.0 air yards per game last season, Kyle Pitts has seen a big decrease this season, currently sitting at 36.0 per game.

Kyle Pitts's 30.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit worse this year than it was last year at 44.8.

When it comes to pass-blocking (and the importance it has on all passing attack stats), the offensive line of the Falcons ranks as the 5th-worst in football this year.

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