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Kyle Pitts

Kyle Pitts Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 4

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints

Kyle Pitts Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 34.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 35.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 34.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Atlanta Falcons offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.23 seconds per play.

The passing games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer.

In this week's contest, Kyle Pitts is forecasted by our trusted projection set to place in the 93rd percentile when it comes to tight ends with 5.7 targets.

As it relates to air yards, Kyle Pitts grades out in the towering 99th percentile among tight ends since the start of last season, accumulating an astounding 59.0 per game.

Kyle Pitts's 43.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive usage) ranks him among the best in football: 95th percentile for TEs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 4-point advantage, the Falcons are favored in this game, implying more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Falcons to pass on 55.7% of their opportunities: the 10th-lowest clip on the slate this week.

Kyle Pitts ranks as one of the weakest TEs in football at picking up extra yardage, averaging just 2.44 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 4th percentile.

Since the start of last season, the tough Saints defense has given up a measly 71.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing tight ends: the 9th-lowest rate in the NFL.

As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, New Orleans's unit has been tremendous since the start of last season, grading out as the 6th-best in the league.

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