Kyle Pitts Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Kyle Pitts

NFL · Player Props

Kyle Pitts

TE · Atlanta Falcons

Receiving Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Chicago Bears · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 9:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Kyle Pitts Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 35.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 35.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Kyle Pitts to notch 6.6 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 94th percentile among tight ends.
Kyle Pitts has been a more integral piece of his offense's passing offense this season (26.2% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (20.0%).
Kyle Pitts has put up significantly more air yards this year (82.0 per game) than he did last year (70.0 per game).
Kyle Pitts's talent in generating extra yardage have gotten a boost this season, totaling 6.64 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a measly 3.59 figure last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 3rd-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 48.2% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Falcons to run the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the 2nd-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 53.6 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 28.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in football.
Kyle Pitts has put up quite a few less receiving yards per game (35.0) this season than he did last season (54.0).

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